UPDATE — Monday, November 2, 2:38 PM CT: The Little Colorado River gauge at Winslow has risen above major flood stage, and the National Weather Service in Flagstaff has extended this Flash Flood Warning through 8:00 PM MST. Flash flooding is already occurring, with additional rises forecast through late tonight and flooding impacts expected in Ames Acres and Bushman Acres in Winslow.

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has issued a Flash Flood Warning for Coconino and Navajo Counties in Arizona until 8:00 AM MST on Monday, November 2.

The warning is in effect for portions of Coconino and Navajo Counties, including Winslow, Cameron, Leupp, Birdsprings, Tolani Lake, Dilkon, Indian Wells, Teesto, White Cone, and Seba Dalkai. The warning area includes several major roadways: Interstate 40 between mile markers 257 and 290, U.S. Highway 89 between mile markers 435 and 450, State Route 87 between mile markers 333 and 360, and State Route 99 between mile markers 0 and 22.

At 11:41 PM MST on Sunday, November 1, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rainfall across the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. Forecasters warned that excessive rainfall over the burn scar could trigger life-threatening flash flooding in and around the burn scar, including debris flows. The warning specifically covers the Diamond Creek drainage and the Little Colorado River.

The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches per hour, with some locations already receiving between 0.75 and 1.25 inches. Additional rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches is possible in the warned area.

Areas with recent burn scars are particularly vulnerable. The saturated ground in the Coconino and Navajo County burn scar areas has a reduced ability to absorb additional rainfall, increasing the runoff potential and the risk of flash flooding.

Forecasters warned that flash flooding could impact roadways, low-water crossings, and small streams. Drivers should avoid flooded roads and never attempt to drive through flooded roadways. The NWS emphasized, "Turn Around, Don't Drown."

At 8:05 AM MST on Monday, November 2, an update indicated that additional rainfall was ongoing across the warned area. The Little Colorado River at Winslow was forecast to rise above flood stage, and additional rounds of heavy rainfall were expected through the morning. The National Weather Service in Flagstaff warned that flash flooding is expected in the Winslow area, with additional flooding possible in the Leupp and Birdsprings areas. The warning remains in effect until 8:00 AM MST, with an elevated risk of flash flooding.